Journal Watch Archive - June 2009
JAMA 3 Jun 2009 Vol 301
2215 Depression is both an inherited trait and a learnt behaviour, and for centuries it was quite prized in the young, as a disincentive to frivolous behaviour and a sign of a religious or philosophical disposition. As Oliver Edwards said to the notoriously depressive Samuel Johnson around 1760, “You are a philosopher, Dr Johnson. I have tried too in my time to be a philosopher; but, I don't know how, cheerfulness was always breaking in.” The adolescent children of depressive parents are at high risk of developing depression, and this interesting study sought to discover if that can be prevented by teaching cheerfulness – i.e. cognitive therapy. The comparator was our false friend “usual care”, but at least the investigators here apologize for that in their commentary section. What they find is that CB works well in preventing depression in these vulnerable youths unless a parent has active depressive illness, in which case it avails little. http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/abstract/301/21/2215
2225 Extremely premature birth is defined as birth before 27 weeks’ gestation. This Swedish study shows how these tiny babies fare with modern intensive neonatal care. Survival at 22 weeks is almost 10%, rising to 85% at 26 weeks. http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/abstract/301/21/2225
2234 Babies who get fat in the first three months of life are more likely to become fat, insulin resistant young adults with bad lipid profiles. So it would seem (with wide confidence intervals) from this Dutch cohort of 217 healthy participants now aged 18 to 24 years. It may be that this is a risk factor which is modifiable by giving babies less food than they demand, but it would be a tough study to carry out and we would need to wait about 60 years for some hard outcomes. So my advice to mothers and health visitors would be: don’t weigh babies without good reason, and feed them when they are hungry. http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/abstract/301/21/2234
NEJM 4 Jun 2009 Vol 360
2397 The arrival of a new antimicrobial drug is always an occasion for celebration, especially when it is one that was found by good old-fashioned chance and experiment rather than the sort of high tech molecular targeting which none of us could do in our garden shed. The diarylquinolone TMC207 was found to be active – very active indeed, in fact – againstMycobacterium tuberculosis after experiments performed on M smegmatis. So all you need are some agar plates, an incubator, and a supply of whatever it is that gives this mycobacterium its name. If this agent lives up to its early promise, it could be a valuable addition to the weaponry against multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/abstract/360/23/2397
2406 In the later nineteenth century, lean writers like Chekhov and Robert Louis Stevenson coughed up blood politely into their handkerchiefs as they travelled across Europe in railway carriages seeking a cure for their tuberculosis. As the same time, the United States of America received millions of the poor and dispossessed of Europe, many of whom had active TB. Quarantine stations began to be set up, the most famous of which was Ellis Island, where immigrants could be kept isolated for months. The word quarantine, by the way, derives from the Italian word for forty, the number of days that the seventeenth century Venetian authorities decreed a ship that might be carrying plague should wait anchored in the Lagoon. Nowadays America is a lot harder to get into, but immigrants and refugees – especially the latter – still account for more than half of the active TB in the US. The solution vigorously advocated in this paper is overseas screening (and treatment) by designated local doctors before entry to the States. It certainly works, but there are no data about what happened to the refugees while they were forced to postpone their flight to freedom. http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/abstract/360/23/2406
2445 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is, well, chronic, obstructive (partly, anyway), and pulmonary. You tell people to stop smoking, immunize them against influenza and pneumococcus, and give them mucolytics, bronchodilators and antibiotics as required. It’s the fourth commonest cause of death in industrialized nations and might get to number 3 if current tobacco promotion policies prevail. It’s hard to say anything else useful about COPD, but this article on its immunology at least says things that are interesting. It goes in detail through all the damaging things that build up in smokers’ phlegm and also speculates on why many smokers nonetheless manage to avoid getting COPD – it may all depend on T-cell regulation. http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/extract/360/23/2445
Lancet 6 Jun 2009 Vol 373
1949 Gradually, if all goes well, we are going to reach a situation in which most cervical cancer is prevented by polyvalent human papillomavirus vaccination and women only need be screened twice in a lifetime. We are by no means there yet, and this trial of a quadrivalent HPV vaccine shows some of the difficulties. The per-protocol success rate in women aged 24-45 was 90%, but taking a more real-life intention-to-treat analysis, this falls to 31% for preventing persistent new infection within 26 months. And this study tells us nothing about the duration of immunity. For a good analysis of where we stand at the moment, read the accompanying editorial on p.1921. http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(09)60691-7/abstract
1958 Every month, somebody sends me a magazine called “Guidelines”, and once or twice a year (I can’t remember, because I always give it away) I get a fat little Compendium of Guidelines as well. And then there are the NICE guidelines, which form a weighty dust-covered green heap on a consulting room shelf. My computer is loaded with lots more guidelines. The practice generates its own guidelines too. When I am dying, people will treat me according to end-of-life guidelines, and at my funeral they will sing “Guide me, O thou great Jehovah”. Until that day, I will continue to rail against guidelines, which are always a mixture of evidence and “expert opinion” and are out of date before the ink is dry on their innumerable pages and appendices. This preambulatory rant leads us to the study in question (CLOTS trial 1), which examines the RCP and SIGN guideline recommendation that all patients suffering fromimmobility due to acute stroke should be made to wear thigh length graduated compression stockings. Well, they shouldn’t. These stockings increase the incidence of skin breaks, ulcers, blisters and necrosis and do nothing to reduce deep vein thrombosis after stroke. http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(09)60941-7/abstract
1974 An excellent seminar on neurofibromatosis type 2 gives you a chance to know everything about it if you happen to have a patient or family with the condition – it occurs in one in 25 000 live births and is inherited as an autosomal dominant with almost 100% penetrance by the age of 60. It has a genetic locus called NF2. That’s the kind of genetics I can remember. It usually presents with hearing loss in young adulthood due to vestibular schwannoma. The other common manifestations are meningiomas and ependymomas. Enough about NF2: what are the other neurofibromatoses? There’s NF1, formerly called von Recklinghausen’s disease or peripheral neurofibromatosis – that’s the commonest kind, formally separated from NF2 only as recently as 1987. The third kind is still called schwannomatosis. http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(09)60259-2/abstract
BMJ 6 Jun 2009 Vol 338
1363 Writing about cancer screening in these columns, I’ve tended to adopt the wearily sceptical tone of a GP who deals the daily burden of anxiety brought on by “abnormal” mammograms, CIN3 of the cervix, high PSAs and so forth, but I was put on my mettle last year when the greatest figure in the field, Martin Vessey FRS, wrote to chide me gently for my blindness to the population benefits of screening. Knowing that MV may be reading this, I shall try to look at this study of flexible sigmoidoscopy for the prevention of colorectal carcinoma from his position as chairman of a national screening committee. What we want, of course, is to reduce the increasing mortality burden of this common cancer in the general population. There may be preventive measures – reducing red meat consumption, perhaps, or banning barbecues, or encouraging the use of NSAIDs, but these are not serious propositions for the moment. The main screening options are testing for occult blood in stool samples (the currently preferred strategy), universal one-time sigmoidoscopy, or universal one-time colonoscopy. At first sight, this Norwegian trial is a flop: “a reduction in incidence of colorectal cancer screening with flexible sigmoidoscopy could not be shown after 7 years’ follow-up.” The accompanying editorial (p.1339) on the other hand hails the trial as “suggesting that the intervention may be effective in reducing mortality from colorectal cancer”. Both ineffective and effective: it all depends on which data you choose to look at. The trial does show a definite large decrease in cancers for those who turned up for the investigation, diluted out if you look at intention-to-treat (I.e. all those invited): so if people could be persuaded to turn up in large numbers to have a tube up their bottoms, this might work. I see a difficult advertising campaign ahead. http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/abstract/338/may29_2/b1846
1366 “QOF for diabetes: can Practices and Patients both be Winners?” is the title of a short lecture I shall be giving in Birmingham and London next week. Tickets are changing hands for astronomical sums. This analysis of the effect of the introduction QOF on diabetic outcomes could not have come at a better time for me. The presentation is a bit obscure and the printed version omits the key table, but the message is clear: the coming of QOF slowed down the improvement in targets such as HbA1c , blood pressure and cholesterol. “The surprising and important message is that left to themselves, doctors tend to pursue good clinical practice for the benefit of their patients, while if made to jump through hoops for money, they will jump the hoops and leave it at that,” as I shall be telling my audience. http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/338/may26_2/b1870
Ann Intern Med 2 Jun 2009 Vol 150
741 How likely are you, a non-diabetic adult aged between 45 and 64, to cross the magic threshold of fasting blood sugar and become a fully paid-up type 2 diabetic? This study validates a new risk score based on glucose, waist circumference, triglycerides, maternal diabetes, black race, paternal diabetes, LDL-cholesterol, short stature, uric acid, age over 55, hypertension, rapid pulse and non-use of alcohol. It’s pretty good. Get searching your computer, download this paper (it’s free), find those high-risk patients and call them in for exercise and weight reduction before they reach 7 mmol/L fasting glucose. http://www.annals.org/cgi/content/full/150/11/741
776 Or should we be looking to reduce their levels of aldosterone? I’ve been interested in this hormone for many years since it became clear that it plays a key role in heart failure andresistant hypertension. This intriguing review looks at its role in the so-called metabolic syndrome as well, which is a conglomeration of risk factors often associated with the later development of diabetes. Blocking aldosterone can improve pancreatic insulin secretion, insulin-mediated glucose utilization, and endothelium-dependent vasorelaxation. It looks as if we might be giving our pre-diabetic and diabetic patients a lot more spironolactone and eplerenone in the future. http://www.annals.org/cgi/content/abstract/150/11/776
Plant of the Week: Parahebe catarractae
Not a shrub, not a perennial, not an alpine: this invaluable little space-filler is often described as a sub-shrub, a mass of wiry stems covered in attractive small evergreen leaves and small fragrant white flowers veined with violet throughout the summer. There are mauve-purple sorts which are best avoided. If you want something entirely trouble-free to cover an edge or tumble over a stone all year round, this is the thing. But it does need sun, and you need to lift it off the ground from time to time to destroy any infant gastropods that it might be providing asylum to.
JAMA 10 Jun 2009 Vol 301
2331 Lipoprotein (a) is present in atherosclerotic arteries but not healthy ones, and it is a perfect candidate for causing plaque, since it contains both cholesterol and a prothrombotic glycoprotein (apolipoprotein [a]). However, it is very difficult to study its association with myocardial infarction; and since we have no tolerable drugs which reduce LPA, such an association has no obvious practical consequences anyway. So I was strongly inclined to pass over this Danish study, but I’m glad that I didn’t. It is quite an intellectual tour de force as well as a logistic feat, combining three types of study within the population of Copenhagen, and it shows how the deft use of genomics can obviate the need for a randomised controlled trial. The key element here is mendelian randomization, the reshuffling of genetic material which happens each time we make a baby. I won’t go into further detail here, but if you are interested in such cutting edge stuff, I would strongly recommend a look at this paper and its accompanying editorial (p.2386). http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/abstract/301/22/2331
2340 Cardiac computerised tomography exposes patients to large amounts of radiation for large sums of money and often negligible clinical benefit. In the USA, you can apparently get it done in “small community hospitals”, which were lumped together with larger centres in this exceedingly unsophisticated before-and-after study. Before these centres participated in the Advanced Cardiovascular Imaging Consortium in Michigan, they used twice the dose of X-rays that they did afterwards. But if you really need to know how furred-up your coronary arteries are, and want much smaller doses of radiation, it’s best to wait for the arrival of prospectively triggered sequential scanning in your area, or even better, single heartbeat acquisitions. http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/abstract/301/22/2340
2362 Most of my readers, I know, do not rush about putting in central venous lines and intubating people and doing all sorts of exciting televisual things that result in pools of blood on the hospital floor. But one or two do, and for your sakes I mention this useful systematic review of corticosteroids in the treatment of severe sepsis and septic shock in adults. Heroic doses are not required: I will merely quote the conclusion – “Corticosteroid therapy has been used in varied doses for sepsis and related syndromes for more than 50 years, with no clear benefit on mortality. Since 1998, studies have consistently used prolonged low-dose corticosteroid therapy, and analysis of this subgroup suggests a beneficial drug effecton short-term mortality.” http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/abstract/301/22/2362
NEJM 11 Jun 2009 Vol 360
2503 Like so many diabetic trials, this one tries to do a bit too much with its painstakingly assembled cohort of patients (2368 in all), but I do think it sends out an important message about the management oftype 2 diabetes with stable coronary heart disease. Do as you like. Treat them with insulin provision– either by injecting it directly or by flogging the beta-cells with a sulfonylurea – or else try insulin sensitization, by metformin or a glitazone: it will make no difference to outcomes. Similarly, chooserevascularization or medical management: again, it will make no difference. The only subgroup which fared appreciably better consisted of those for whom coronary artery bypass grafting was “deemed the preferred method of revascularization”. Note that patients with left main coronary artery disease were excluded from this trial, called BARI-2D. http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/abstract/360/24/2503
2516 Wow: could this be a trial which gives a clear message about the treatment of locally advanced prostate cancer? The headline message is that if the chosen initial treatment is external-beam radiotherapy, then survival will be improved if androgen suppression is continued for three yearsrather than six months. This was an important fact to establish, since androgen suppression has a lot of unwelcome side-effects. However, the effect size is modest and the statistics only just reach significance. http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/abstract/360/24/2516
2528 Here is what you wanted to hear: a large database study from Israel confirms earlier observational evidence that metoclopramide in early pregnancy is not associated with adverse fetal outcomes.There were more than 78 000 controls to compare with 3458 cases where mothers had been prescribed metoclopramide in the first trimester, and there were no significant differences in fetal anomalies, preterm delivery, birth weight, or perinatal death. http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/abstract/360/24/2528
2536 Zika virus outbreak on Yap Island! Avoid Micronesians! Actually, the first statement is true, but the second is false, because although the inhabitants of Yap are Micronesians, it’s their mosquitoes and not themselves that are thought to transmit this virus. Micronesia is the name given to a cluster of 607 Pacific islands, and the mystery here is how this rare virus ever got there. The previous 14 reported cases were from Africa and Asia, whereas Yap Island in the middle of nowhere can now claim 49 confirmed and 59 probable cases. The traditional money of the Yapese consists of carved stones up to 4m in diameter: no change given; stop yapping. Fortunately for them, Zika is no deadly killer plague virus, but something that causes conjunctivitis, rash, fever and arthralgia for a few days.
The Island of Yap
Is a speck on the map:
But it’s slightly easier
To detect Micronesia.
A virus called Zika
Made some Islanders sicker,
But they all got better,
And there’s an end to the metter:
Let’s twist no knicker
For a virus called Zika.
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/abstract/360/24/2536
Lancet 13 Jun 2009 Vol 373
2027 EURODIAB has capital letters like an acronym, but surely it’s just an abbreviation. Anyway, it does what it says on the tin: here it reports that alarming numbers of Eurochildren are getting diab. It’s called a multicentre prospective registration study and the good thing is that ascertainment rates are higher than 90%, so it’s pretty reliable. Less reliable, perhaps, is its estimate that new cases of type 1 diabetes in children under 5 will double in Europe by 2020. Let’s hope that between now and then, a vaccine to prevent the disease will be developed. http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(09)60568-7/abstract
2034 If you are going to do a proper randomised trial of something, you need to do a proper literature review first; best of all, do a meta-analysis. By the time you have done that, and filled out the funding bid forms, you will probably have lost the will to live; or at any rate the will to do the study. But never mind. If you persevere, you can publish the meta-analysis and your own RCT as a single paper, like these British investigators of progesterone for the prevention of preterm birth in twin pregnancy. Progesterone does not prevent preterm birth in twin pregnancies; it does not prevent adverse outcomes either, which is a subtly different question. The acronym of the trial is STOPPIT. Do not prescribe progesterone for twin pregnancies; do not come up with silly acronyms. Stoppit at once. http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(09)60947-8/abstract
2055 For an account of the life of James Parkinson, man of God, ardent child-beater and author of An Essay on the Shaking Palsy, you will have to go to a Lancet of some years back for an excellent piece by Druin Burch. For an account of the shaking palsy itself, this seminar on Parkinson’s disease is worth reading for a wealth of useful information, though the three professors who write it seem a little unconnected with the shop floor. The most characteristic feature, without which the diagnosis cannot be made, is bradykinesia: slowness of initiation of voluntary movement with progressive reduction in speed or amplitude of repetitive actions. Since the diagnosis is entirely clinical, you might as well try and elicit the right signs. http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(09)60492-X/abstract
2067 If you love airports and can drop everything at a moment’s notice to get free flights to all sorts of exotic destinations, then flight medicine is the thing for you, and pays handsomely, according to a colleague I was talking to a while back. This nice practical review goes into the medical issues associated with commercial flights and is of interest to all of us who get put on the spot by patients who wish to travel by air and ask us for advice. It’s probably a bit basic for hardened flight medics who are sent out to accompany those taken ill abroad. http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(09)60209-9/abstract
BMJ 13 Jun 2009 Vol 338
1423 Only ten years ago, the words “stroke” and “TIA” (not a real word, but never mind) induced a sort of sad shrug in most British doctors. Now stroke medicine is a specialty in its own right and alone among medical conditions, stroke demands “hyperacute” care (see p.1419): 999 ambulance, immediate scan, thrombolysis, wham, bang. TIA demands a clinic appointment the same week, carotid ultrasound, andcarotid endarterectomy within two weeks if there is a suitable lesion, according to the NICE guideline. How does real life in our dear NHS compare? According to this study, achievement is about 20% and there are no figures for how many strokes occur in the 80% of patients who have to wait longer. http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/abstract/338/jun04_1/b1847http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/extract/338/jun04_1/b2083
1426 Do you dare to do a TYM? I am old, I am old, and I shall wear the bottoms of my trousers rolled, but I am not sure I can bear to find out. People are so kind when I forget their names. It is great fun to go to places for the first time and then be told I have been there before. I think I have just the right amount of Alzheimer’s. No need for a baseline score, thanks. If you feel differently, visit the website and do theself-administered cognitive screening test. It is almost certain to be the instrument of choice from now on, however much people quibble about its predictive characteristics, because it performs better than the MMSE and is available without copyright restrictions (see the Lancet comment piece, Taxing Your Memory, p.2009). http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/338/jun08_3/b2030
1436 Another quick pointer for readers who spill blood on hospital floors: a nice little (longer on the website) piece by some Army doctors about damage control resuscitation for patients with major trauma. Carry on, Major; and good luck. http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/extract/338/jun05_1/b1778
Arch Intern Med 8 Jun 2009 Vol 169
1055 I like the Archives for its wide range of topics, but this week’s is full of weak studies from which I have plucked this one merely for personal interest. If you sleep badly, your blood pressure is more likely to rise. This is one of many studies under the umbrella of CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) which has followed a cohort of 5115 from 1985. In 2002 it invited some of them to participate in this study: they had to be normotensive and non-pregnant. The upshot is that if you sleep badly – as assessed by various questions and three nights of actigraphy – your BP is more likely to go up. The authors even claim that this explains the difference in BP between blacks and whites in their cohort, and that measures to improve sleep may help hypertension. Cognitive behavioural therapy for everything, say I.
Plant of the Week: Paeonia “Garden Treasure”
The genetic modification of plants is the basis of civilisation. Sumer was founded on the breeding of wheat, and China on the breeding of rice. We don’t know how exactly which garden flowers the Sumerians bred five thousand years ago – the names are mostly obscure – but we do know that the Chinese have been breeding peonies for at least 1,600 years.
When they were first brought to Europe, they caused a sensation, especially in France, where new kinds were bred soon after their arrival. These were from the two basic categories of peony, the herbaceous kind and the so-called tree peonies, which are really just moderate sized sprawling shrubs. Both sorts abound in the colours pink and white and purple and red, but yellow has always been rare, confined to a few tree peonies and a couple of herbaceous species which are unsuitable for hybridizing.
The French breeders took this as a challenge. They tried to interbreed yellow tree peonies with various herbaceous varieties, but ended up declaring that this was impossible. They concentrated instead on producing a number of hybrids between the tree species lutea and the various tree peonies arriving in shipments from China and Japan. Some of these yellow-flowered Lemoine tree hybrids are becoming available again, and they are exquisite, especially “L’Espérance” and “Argosy”.
In the USA and Japan, one or two peony breeders challenged the French orthodoxy that you couldn’t get a tree to mate with a herbaceous peony. With enormous patience and a huge failure rate, they produced a tiny number of viable offspring. Here were slightly woody low plants with flowers of beautiful clear yellows, often with central flashes of crimson. When one of them, called Bartzella, first came on sale in 1998, it was offered at $1,000.
“Garden Treasure” came soon after, and was judged by the very picky American Peony Society to be even better than Bartzella. Now it has begun to arrive in England. We saw it in flower at Wisley less than a fortnight ago, blazing with beauty from 100 metres away, and bought one last week in Shropshire for £80. A lot for a plant? Not really. Once in the ground, it will flower for 50 years or more. Admittedly for only one week of the year. But what a thing to look forward to! Worth the price of a nice meal for two, any day.
JAMA 17 Jun 2009 Vol 301
2453 For several years there has been lively controversy over the respective merits ofvirtual colonoscopy (by computerised X-ray tomography) versus actual colonoscopy in various clinical settings. The basic presumption seems to be that we would rather be exposed to large doses of ionising radiation than be sodomised by a sort of plastic eel. Having submitted to the eel, I would agree with a correspondent to the NEJM that the actual sodomy is less awful than the bowel prep and starvation; in fact it’s rather intriguing to watch the inside of one’s bowel while under the influence of midazolam. However, let’s move on (as the colonoscopist said after taking the biopsy): this big Italian study compared the two kinds of bowel imaging in three high risk groups: those with a family history of bowel cancer, those with previous adenomas, and those with positive faecal occult blood. A thousand brave Italians (with a few satellite Belgians) underwent both procedures within the space of three hours. The negative predictive value for CT colonography was 96% overall, but only 85% for the positive FOB group, who are the ones most likely to be screened in the UK programme. It’s the eel for them, I fear. http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/abstract/301/23/2453
2462 Every few months I pay a visit to the academic department of general practice in Oxford, where through the kindness of the Head I rejoice in the honorific title of senior research fellow. Each time I’m on site I get lost in a maze of tall bright new buildings which house genomic people unconnected with my humble avocation. A better location for these gene gnomes would be underground, in some vast clanking Niebelheim like the one overseen by Alberich in Wagner’s Das Rheingold. Down there the Regius Professor could whip them by the flickering light of a thousand VDUs as they ceaselessly search their databases and their multiple arrays and their SNP detectors. But to what end? To perform one gene association study is the labour of years: there have been 26 seeking to establish a link between theserotonin transporter gene (5-HTTLPR), stressful life events, and the risk of depression; fourteen were selected for this meta-analysis: and what they show is that there is no association. Come up into the light, ye doleful gnomes: breathe the free air and learn again to make poorly people better. http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/abstract/301/23/2462
2472 The ancient Dutch university of Leiden is famous these days for its studies of the genetics of thrombosis risk - we have all heard of Factor V Leiden, and locally we measure it once as part of a “thrombophilia screen” when people discontinue warfarin after their firstvenous thromboembolism. Others have measured it in family members of those with this common mutation: and yet others have taken an interest in a much rarer thrombophilic mutation, prothrombin G20210A. In fact the authors of this systematic review from Baltimore found 7777 papers on these topics. They selected 46 and tried to find out what this thousand-fold septiform activity might mean for patient care. Again, the answer is nothing. “There is no direct evidence that testing for these mutations, and the resultant management, reduces VTE related outcomes in individuals who have had VTE or in the probands’ family members who have been tested”. O come into the light, ye doleful gnomes of Leiden. http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/abstract/301/23/2472
NEJM 18 Jun 2009 Vol 360
2605 Is everyone dead yet? Not you and I, dear Reader, not yet: but for that we cannot thank those responsible for influenza virus containment measures. These would have failed anyway, no doubt, but by golly they made sure of it in the UK, as any of you who have gone through the farce of enacting the HPA protocol will know. For our continued survival we must thank the novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus itself, the subject of several useful studies and other pieces in this week’s NEJM – something for which the journal can and does congratulate itself with good reason, while The Lancet just moans and waffles. Here is as clear and authoritative account as you are ever going get of the origin of this pandemic, within weeks of its confirmation. For a good summary of flu pandemics generally, see p.2595.
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/360/25/2605
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/360/25/2595
2616 The SARS scare and this latest virus have made us all mug up on our virology in the last couple of years, but it’s still a swine to understand why some strains infect the whole world within weeks while others just pick off a few pig farmers in America. As a fascinating editorial on p.2667 points out, H1 viruses are triple assortants of viruses from pigs, humans and birds. They are normally highly infectious from pig to pig but only occasionally spread to humans in close contact with pigs. The paper I refer to here contains case reports, including fatalities, from such sporadic infections with other H1 triple assortant viruses. By contrast, the latest kind, which is best called S-OIV, came from a pig and spreads rapidly from human to human but hardly at all from pig to pig. And all these H1s are probably the result of a catastrophic melding of bird and pig and human flu early in the last century. “The current situation is not ‘1918 again’, it is ‘1918 continued’, in that we are still being infected with the remnants of the 1918 pandemic.” In other words, this pandemic is just a ripple, not a new catastrophe; this virus has already learnt that it is more profitable to make people sneeze at each other than to kill them. http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/360/25/2616
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/360/25/2666
2626 Streptococci can behave in rum ways, too: it was only in the 1970s that group B infection in the first week after birth became widely recognised as a leading cause of illness and death. The prevention strategy adopted in the USA was to introduce universal antenatal screening for strep B in the birth canal between 35 and 37 weeks of gestation and prophylactic antibiotic administration for those who are culture positive. This was associated with a 65% decrease in incidence between 1993 and 1998. Here’s a progress report up to 2004. Screening rates have nearly doubled, but most babies with strep B disease are now born to mothers who screened negative, showing that although useful, current screening methods are not completely effective. http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/abstract/360/25/2626
Lancet 20 Jun 2009 Vol 373
2113 “Crown him, ye morning stars of light, who fixed this floating ball” might be a good line for a hymn to Bill Gates, would-be global fixer, sponsor of this paper on the financing ofglobal health, and naturally a hero (with Melinda) of the glorious tale. (The hymn in question was actually addressed to the Name of Jesus for the Children of Israel by the mad Bishop of Methodism, Edward Perronet, around 1780). And if global health is not fixed, it won’t be for lack of good intentions and massive philanthropism, as detailed here. The policy challenges are discussed at enormous length later on in the journal (p.2137). No talk here of population control or the role of the pharmaceutical industry, however. And yet, with no world revolution likely for a decade or two, we should celebrate the unprecedented outpouring of human goodness that this effort represents with a glass or two of chilled Gavi di GAVI (Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization; or else the best white wine growing area in northern Italy). http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(09)60881-3/abstract
2125 I have spent a day in the last week listening to and talking about the latest diabetes trials; not my natural stamping ground, and one that fills me with consternation at the awful evidence base for our clinical decision-making in this immensely important area. Most of these trials are plain bad, this one included, though it does not set a new RECORD. What really bothers me is how difficult it is to get to the actual data in diabetic trials, beyond the spin that is put on them by the investigators – UKPDS being a notorious example, despite its 80+ manifestations in the literature. RECORD is actually quite well written up, but it still manages not to tell us much about the glycated Hbs actually achieved by any of the drug combinations, or how many people actually took rosiglitazone for how long. It was an open-label trial addressing the reasonable question of how people fare if you give them rosi in combination with metformin or a sulfonylurea as opposed to combining the two with the option of adding insulin if they got beyond 8.5% HbA1c. Judging from disclosures subsequently made by the study’s sponsors, GlaxoSmithKline, the figure was about 60% for people staying with rosi to the end (as paid to do) versus about 50% for the controls staying with their specified drugs: statin use rose markedly during the study, more so in the rosi group. And so: we know that in this unblinded study, analysed by intention to treat, rosiglitazone did not increase cardiovascular mortality. But more people got heart failure and many more women got distal fractures. Argue on, and if that interests you, look at the excellent debate in CardioBrief: but as to treating patients, I’m none the wiser, and I’ll continue to avoid rosiglitazone. http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(09)60953-3/abstract
BMJ 20 June 2009 Vol 338
1491 It may be that you are more interested than I am in the control of dengue fever, how many people don’t turn up for breast and cervical screening, how “matched” patients fare under private or NHS midwives, the non-effect of statins on elderly pneumonia rates, or which way round to have child car seats fitted: if so, gorge away at this week’s British Medical Journal. I am interested in prognostic research, so the final Altman piece on p.1887 is a must, but I don’t expect you are, so I’ll content myself to comment only on a short but very useful run-through of acute leukaemia in children. I guess it’s the diagnosis we all most dread to make, and to have to break to unsuspecting parents. This piece is written by the doctors I’d actually send such children to, and they begin by pointing out that 85% of them will be cured. They get full marks for looking at the primary care literature and for pointing out the difficulty of making the diagnosis at first presentation. Now and again even the blood film may be misleadingly normal. The prognosis of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia remains better than for acute myeloid leukaemia but even in the latter, survival has risen since the 1980s from 15% to 66% at five years. Chemotherapy for leukaemic children can be pretty ghastly, but at least it gets results. http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/extract/338/jun11_1/b2285
Ann Intern Med 16 Jun 2009 Vol 150
830 If you ferment rice with the red fungus Monascus purpureus, you get a mixture containing various statins, including lovastatin. Apparently there has been a study purporting to show that this red yeast rice does reduce cardiovascular events. This single-centre trial seeks to discover if it can be tolerated by statin-intolerant patients as a “natural” alternative to other lipid-lowering agents. The authors of the study claim success in a double-blinded trial with 31 patients in each arm. But the authors of the accompanying editorial (p.885), who run a large clinic specifically for statin-related muscle problems, say that this contradicts their experience. I don’t think I’ll rush to recommend red rice to any patients. http://www.annals.org/cgi/content/abstract/150/12/830
840 Stents began their life in the dental surgery of Charles Stent, but their use has spread from the mouth to virtually every tube in the body, including the renal arteries. People withatherosclerotic renal arteries get renal impairment and hypertension, so they generally end up on an antihypertensive, aspirin and a statin. How about stenting the artery as well? This led directly to death in two of 64 patients and did not improve outcomes. Don’t do it. http://www.annals.org/cgi/content/abstract/150/12/840
849 More and more of us will have to undergo colonoscopy at some stage, and that will cause bowel perforation in about one examination in 1,800 – a fact confirmed in this large study of Medicare recipients. Other adverse effects include GI bleeding and cardiovascular events, and tend to be commoner with increasing age and co-morbidity, as you’d expect. http://www.annals.org/cgi/content/abstract/150/12/849
858 Statin-related myalgia is such a common problem that I never tire of reading reviews about it, and this one is the most useful I’ve encountered so far. It even suggests how to manage it without resorting to red yeast rice. It contains nice biochemical diagrams with lovely names like geranylgeranylation and ubiquinone. It explains some of the discordance between the randomised trials and our everyday clinical experience. But I think the point best worth remembering is that simvastatin is metabolised by the CYP3A4 isoenzyme and so interacts with all sorts of things like grapefruit juice, amiodarone, cyclosporine and antifungals, whereas rosuvastatin is metabolised by CYP2C9 and has far fewer interactions likely to cause myalgia. Also it allows you to get away with a lot more, including very low dosing or alternate day dosing regimes. About 40% of your statin myalgia sufferers will tolerate a return to the original statin at lower dose, and most of the rest may tolerate another statin if you keep trying. http://www.annals.org/cgi/content/abstract/150/12/858
Plant of the Week: Kniphofia ‘Wol’s Red Seedling’
A gentleman called Wol Staines raised this really red hot poker, which flowers abundantly from now until late August. There are cool low pokers like “Timothy” for the more tasteful, restrained parts of your garden, but this mid-sized fellow will blaze with orange scarlet wherever your summer composition needs a bit of pep.
JAMA 24 Jun 2009 Vol 301
2563 Imagine a remote island populated by a monoculture of settlers from 1,100 years ago, still speaking their original language. Add glaciers, geysers, Northern Lights, failed banks, fish restaurants, etc. and you get Iceland, now classed by the UN as the most developed nation on earth. A far cry from the Icelandic sagas, in which characters like Gudmundsson and Sigurdsson would smash each others’ heads with axes and carry off women with names like Eiriksdottir. Nowadays, descendants bearing these exact names sit together and write learned papers together in geothermally heated university offices: this one is aboutmigraine in middle life and late-life brain infarcts. You can see how findings from a population of 320,000 people, most of them related to each other, may not necessarily apply to the whole of the world, but the weak association found here between migraine with aura in women and cerebellar infarction in later life is consistent with other studies in European populations. Why these infarcts should favour the female cerebellum is a mystery, and I’d like to know how many of these dottirs have a patent foramen ovale. Now that all Icelanders have been genotyped, perhaps we should insist that they all have autopsies. But not before death, as was once traditional. http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/abstract/301/24/2563
2571 The town of Framingham may not be separated from the rest of the world by hundreds of miles of stormy ocean but it still manages to capture lots of useful longitudinal population data. Here the indefatigable team including familiar names such as Daniel Levy and Ramachandran Vasan look at the association between a prolonged PR interval on the ECG and later events. An atrioventricular conduction time of more than 200 milliseconds (first degree block) increases your risk of atrial fibrillation twofold and your risk of having a pacemaker threefold. Your mortality risk increases by over 40% (HR 95% CI,1.09-1.91). http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/abstract/301/24/2571
NEJM 25 Jun 2009 Vol 360
2705 If you shut off a coronary artery acutely, it’s best to get someone to go in there and unblock it acutely: that much has been clear for about ten years. Moreover, the faster they do it, the better, as that excellent Yale study showed us a couple of weeks ago. But what if you happen to be somewhere where there isn’t a handy interventional cardiologist standing by? Go for fibrinolysis, obviously, but still try and find the handy cardiologist as fast as you can. That’s the simple message of this study from Canada, a country where access to cardiac catheter labs is frequently compromised by distance, snow, moose, bears and so forth. Get there in six hours following fibrinolysis and outcomes will be better than if you’re delayed longer. The fact that you’ve had a thrombolytic will not increase your chance of major bleeding during the procedure. http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/abstract/360/26/2705
2730 Cast your mind back to that good little update on childhood leukaemia in the BMJ last week: acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is the commonest kind and the one with the best prognosis. But traditionally a lot of these poor kids are subjected to cranial irradiation to prevent CNS relapse, making them feel awful in the short term and carrying a risk of secondary tumours, endocrine disorders and cognitive impairment in the long term. This study of newly diagnosed children with ALL from Tennessee brings the welcome news that this is no longer necessary: at any rate, this is what the authors say, though I find it almost impossible to follow their protocol and randomisation procedures, and no flow chart is provided. The main thing is that five-year survival topped 90% with chemo alone. http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/abstract/360/26/2730
2749 A few months ago, I was worried I had alpha1-antitrypsin deficiency, but then I looked up the normal range and found that I was only 1% below. This is good, because try as I might, I could not get interested in this condition for which there is little useful therapy and a number of unwelcome outcomes. The major ones are chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and progressive liver disease. This review article takes you through what is known about the genetics (an awful lot) and its management (nothing much): we probably miss most of it because of limitations in standard testing, including genotyping, but I’m not sure this makes much difference to the affected individuals. http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/extract/360/26/2749
2758 “In the troughs made with bur grass, there is sweet beer. I will have the cupbearers, the boys and the brewers stand by. As I spin around the lake of beer, while feeling wonderful, feeling wonderful, while drinking beer, in a blissful mood, while drinking alcohol and feeling exhilarated, with joy in the heart and a contented liver -- my heart is a heart filled with joy! I clothe my contented liver in a garment fit for a queen! The heart of Inana is happy once again; the heart of Inana is happy once again!” This Sumerian drinking song from about 4,000 years ago is the first recorded joint mention of alcohol and the liver. But maybe we should not take its praise of beer too literally: young Inana, the Goddess of Love, was a notorious girl-about-town and is later (in the Epic of Gilgamesh) portrayed as a raddled old whore. Perhaps this is also the first reference to teenage binge drinking. Anyway, most Sumerians drank a litre or two of beer a day because it was the only safe cool liquid available in ancient Mesopotamia. By filtering the soiled water of the Tigris and Euphrates through sprouting grain and leaving it to stand, they may have begun humanity’s love affair with alcohol. This review article on alcoholic hepatitis opens on an altogether less lyrical note: “Excessive alcohol consumption is the third leading preventable cause of death in the United States.” The Sumerians would have regarded a fatty liver as a good omen, but these grim hepatologists allow no such comfort: as far as they are concerned, this portends cirrhosis – though it doesn’t in 95% of people - and they won’t even stoop to define “hepatitis” or contemplate any strategy short of total abstinence. The same Temperance Hall rhetoric pervades this week’s Lancet too. The harms of alcohol may perhaps outweigh its benefits, but it is uncommonly hard to find anyone who is willing even to admit the latter, let alone place the two objectively side by side. http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/extract/360/26/2758
Lancet 27 Jun 2009 Vol 373
2201 Placing the harms and benefits of alcohol in Russia side by side, even I have to admit there is no contest. Tolstoy’s answer was to ban it in the expectation that this would result in the peasants asserting their native dignity and trust in God; Chekhov as ever was wiser and subtler (“the only Russian author with any common sense”, as Auden called him). Though he wrote harrowing stories of alcohol-induced brutality and murder, he died with the words, ”It’s a long time since I drank champagne.” Blessed is the Russian who can take it or leave it. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1990, there was a terrible plunge in life expectancy, which this paper attributes almost solely to alcohol. It kills Russian men preferentially in their most productive years. Some would advocate prohibition – like a character called Joatmon in Rakesh Biswas’ newly published post-modern medical tale The Conscious Notebook – a must-get, especially if you teach medical students. But although Joatmon (standing for Jack-of-all-trades) is an honoured figure in the Tolstoy-Gandhi tradition, he may also be read ironically as a self-satisfied generalist dispensing easy wisdom in his protective cave. See what you think. Alcohol is too much part of civilization, and too ready a palliative for the awfulness of the Russian climate, ever to be suppressed. As with all comforting addictions, we need better harm management and better alternatives. For a global view, see the three later papers, pp.2223, 2234, 2247.
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(09)61034-5/abstract
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(09)60746-7/abstract
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(09)60744-3/abstract
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(09)60745-5/abstract
2215 Type 2 diabetes, like heart failure, hypertension, renal impairment, thyroid disorder and many of the “diseases” we treat every day is not actually a disease in itself but a range of processes defined by an arbitrary measurement. This simple fact seems to me one of the most important perceptions for every doctor to keep in mind - whether you are a jobber like me or an academic like those who wrote this valuable paper about trajectories of glycaemia, insulin sensitivity, and insulin secretion before the onset of type 2 diabetes in the Whitehall II cohort. People who are going to “get diabetes” – i.e. cross the fasting glycaemic threshold of 7 mmol/L – show characteristic changes in their glucose homeostasis in the years leading up to the condition. The abstract is tough to follow so here is an extract from the text which sums up this intriguing advance in knowledge: “Our findings support a multistage model of diabetes aetiology: a long compensatory period, when insulin secretion increases to compensate insulin resistance without any major changes in glucose values; a stable adaptation, when β-cell mass is decreasing in spite of β-cell adaptation; and a transient unstable period with a rapid rise of glucose to overt diabetes.” Look at the plots in this paper and ponder how you might identify these people and help them. http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(09)60619-X/abstract
BMJ 27 Jun 2009 Vol 338
Although I don’t usually stray beyond the research and education pages of the BMJ, the non-academic articles this week are of such interest that they cry out for mention. Three pieces – about methylphenidate on p.1532, about breast screening on p.1534, and about the mode of action of psychiatric drugs on p. 1535, deal with widely differing subjects but they are linked by a common theme of mental states. William Blake saw the whole of life as a play of states within the soul, and reality as a construct we create from these. Most of our waking time is spent in the consolidation of a state called Generation by which we concern ourselves with the safety and prosperity of our material lives and our families. But beneath this lies the state of Ulro, in which we are alone and paranoid and there is no such thing as a beloved or society. It is here that we do the greatest harm to ourselves and others. Above both of these lies the dangerous, happy land of Beulah, a place of sexual love and music, where contrarieties are equally true. Called by its happiness, we forget the tasks of Generation, and from this Beulah we either ascend to the City of Eden, where all activity is a mutual divine construct, or fall straight back through the pie-crust of Generation and into the nightmare single vision of Ulro.
It seems to me that anything that helps people out of the single vision of Ulro is a good thing. Love, mutuality, forgiveness and creative work were Blake’s answer: but if chemicals help too, why deny these, when the rest is so difficult to provide? This seems to me to be the message of the piece on methylphenidate, though at a rather generational sort of level: “Perhaps doctors older than 50 would be required to pharmacologically stave off their fraying cognitive edges.” Hmph. Where can I get some
http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/extract/338/jun18_2/b1955
The piece on psychiatric drugs points out, rather repetitively, that we don’t know how psychiatric drugs work but argues that people should be able to choose how to use them according to what benefits they perceive. I agree, broadly. Never deny anybody a way out of Ulro. http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/extract/338/may29_1/b1963
And Iona Heath’s piece on mammography? The Ulronic elements of cancer screening are well summed up in her quotation from Sackett about the threefold arrogance of preventive medicine, as carried out without an honest dialogue with its beneficiaries/victims. This is like Blake’s painting of the Condemned, the Judge and the Executioner: all three are walking to the block with fixed downward expressions of equal guilt and misery. Read Iona’s essay and see if anyone comes up with a convincing answer in the Rapid Responses. Bin your copies of Breast Screening: The Facts. ¡Viva La Presidenta! http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/extract/338/jun23_1/b2529
1538 And so to a new screening topic: once-only abdominal ultrasound for abdominal aortic aneurysm in men. At least the test is harmless and accurate, and there is evidence of a 46% reduction in AAA mortality in this UK study - MASS, followed up at 10 years. But the absolute numbers are small and the main debate is whether it is cost-effective. British calculations suggest it is, whereas Danish (p.1542) suggest it isn’t.
http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/abstract/338/jun24_2/b2307
http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/abstract/338/jun24_2/b2243
1545 Now children, should we prescribe antibiotics for acute cough in primary care? Was there a naughty child at the back who said yes? Come to the front of the class, you bad bad boy, and look at this chart from 13 European countries. Now what does it show, Richard? Not much, Miss. http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/abstract/338/jun23_2/b2242
1548 Methadone is a useful drug, but a dangerous one, as this survey of mortality in Scottish methadone recipients shows. More methadone is being prescribed while the death rate has leveled off, but it makes one wonder if perhaps in high-risk patients like those on large doses of benzodiazepines, we wouldn’t be better off using safer alternatives such as buprenorphine, or heroin. http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/abstract/338/jun16_4/b2225
1552 Our most harmful drug of addiction is also one of the hardest to discontinue. Pregnant women, however, should try to stop smoking as soon as possible: if we can help them do it before 15 weeks’ gestation, the baby will avoid nearly all the harm in terms of premature delivery and low birth weight. http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/abstract/338/mar26_2/b1081
Arch Intern Med 22 Jun 2009 Vol 169
1104 Over the last few years, we’ve been discovering that erythropoietin-stimulating agents work very well at increasing haemoglobin and killing people. But does a haemoglobin over 12 at least make people with chronic kidney disease feel better? According to this systematic review and meta-analysis, the answer is no. Keep the Hb between 9 and 12, and they’ll live longer and feel just as well. http://archinte.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/abstract/169/12/1104
1113 Is knee replacement cost-effective? It’s just done to elderly people, and we’d be better off shooting them, as one of them tells me at least every day. In these times of economic stringency, abolish TKR unless you value mobility and pain relief in the elderly. If you have to do it, then use large centres for the best cost/benefit ratio. This also applies to shooting. http://archinte.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/abstract/169/12/1113
Blake for the Week:
(for a brief explanation, see BMJ section)
Now I a fourfold vision see,
And a fourfold vision is given to me;
‘Tis fourfold in my supreme delight
And threefold in soft Beulah’s night
And twofold Always. May God us keep
From Single vision & Newton’s sleep!
(end of a letter to Thomas Butts, 22 Nov 1802)
